ubuntu-phone team mailing list archive

[Josh Leverette <coder543@xxxxxxxxx>]

Correction, "The real numbers aren't nearly that optimistic", where "that"
refers to your $80,000,000 number. The real numbers aren't nearly
*that* optimistic.
They're in the range of $20,000,000 or so for all pledges combined
throughout the next month.


On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 11:20 AM, Josh Leverette <coder543@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> If you look at my graph, the average is significantly skewed by the $600
> perk. The average slope for the 2nd half of the graph is $605.43 per 90
> seconds. The real numbers aren't nearly that optimistic, which fits with
> what I said in my earlier emails.
>
>
> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 11:13 AM, Daniel Clem <clem11388@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
>> If that trend holds there will be a total of almost 80,000,000. Obviously
>> it will have ups and downs, but even half that average would reach the
>> goal. Will re-investigate GSM's signal strength in my area, as well as data
>> plans.
>>
>>
>> Josh Leverette <coder543@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>>
>>> The only number I'm writing down is the total funding amount so far at
>>> each interval, I'm not writing anything down about individual users. I feel
>>> like anything more than just looking at the total would be kind of sketchy.
>>> I ran some analysis and out of all of the 90 second periods, the most
>>> amount of contribution that the project received was $18,432 total during
>>> one 90 second interval. The average so far has been about $2,607 per 90
>>> second interval.
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:56 AM, Omar B. <estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Nice, thx for recording the data and the graph.
>>>>
>>>> did you get any data on individuals who may had purchased multiple
>>>> times consecutively? , how many each individual got ?
>>>>
>>>> I Think indiegogo only lets you select one perk even if you add more
>>>> cash to the amount.
>>>>
>>>> So it wouldn't be a surprise if some made multiple purchases
>>>> consecutively.
>>>>
>>>> Anyway this will be a crucial week, hope their double edge and other
>>>> perks get mass acceptance.
>>>>
>>>> ------------------------------
>>>> From: coder543@xxxxxxxxx
>>>> Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2013 10:41:00 -0500
>>>>
>>>> Subject: Re: [Ubuntu-phone] Ubuntu Edge (the Ubuntu handset)
>>>> To: estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>>> CC: ubuntu-phone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Actually, this will probably help. This is the amount of funding the
>>>> project had received over time. The data was sampled at a rate of once
>>>> every 90 seconds. You can clearly see the moment when the $600 phone option
>>>> ran out. Calculating the trend line for the second half of the graph
>>>> indicates that the campaign will raise about $20,000,000 total over the
>>>> full period of the campaign, which is not enough. I believe that this is
>>>> the reason Canonical introduced the Double Edge option a few minutes ago,
>>>> which might boost sales by a little bit more. Hopefully this clarifies my
>>>> point. There lines are very smooth. If a company bought 100 units all at
>>>> once, there would be a visible blip on the graph, in my opinion. That would
>>>> be $60,000 in pledges all at once, which would break the monotony of the
>>>> graph.
>>>>
>>>> [image: Inline image 1]
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:34 AM, Josh Leverette <coder543@xxxxxxxxx>wrote:
>>>>
>>>> I'm not saying companies *couldn't* buy from the indiegogo deal. I'm
>>>> just saying the companies with the money to buy from this fundraiser
>>>> wouldn't be able to move fast enough to have gotten in on the 1st day of
>>>> sales. Companies move slowly for the most part, and I was watching the
>>>> sales figures carefully. I've even plotted them on a graph over time as the
>>>> data has come in, starting at about $1.5million dollars in sales. I
>>>> should've started the data collection earlier, but I stupidly didn't think
>>>> to. I watched the number from the start though, even though they weren't
>>>> being recorded. The rates were constant. There was no bulk purchase done by
>>>> any one company. If you would like to review my numbers, I can send you the
>>>> spreadsheet.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:16 AM, Omar B. <estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx>wrote:
>>>>
>>>> >Stores and resellers were not purchasing from indiegogo yesterday.
>>>> There might have been one or two, but that's simply not what happened. This
>>>> whole campaign is all about individuals buying these phones. I don't want
>>>> to see this campaign fail anymore than you do. People will either buy them
>>>> at $830, or they won't.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> yes... sure.
>>>>
>>>> I didn't see anywhere that said limited one per client.
>>>>
>>>> Or that you shouldn't get involved with business reasons in mind and
>>>> get a bunch of them.
>>>>
>>>> There's nothing to lose at the moment, which makes it even better. In
>>>> fact anyone can come in and buy most of the 35k remaining, I don't think
>>>> its prohibited.
>>>>
>>>> I believe even companies got into the discounted 600 tier and took
>>>> their share and is why you see 0 in the enterprise tier. Why would you as a
>>>> company pay 80/160k when you can pay 60/120k right there (Big discount in
>>>> one go), is a no brainer, they wouldn't survive as companies by being dumb
>>>> about $, specially on this economy.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
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>>>> Post to     : ubuntu-phone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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>>>> More help   : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Sincerely,
>>>>     Josh
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Sincerely,
>>>>     Josh
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone
>>>> Post to     : ubuntu-phone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone
>>>> More help   : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Sincerely,
>>>     Josh
>>>
>>> --
>>> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone
>>>
>>>
>>> Post to     : ubuntu-phone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone
>>>
>>>
>>> More help   : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp
>>>
>>>
>
>
>  --
> Sincerely,
>     Josh
>



-- 
Sincerely,
    Josh