Correction, "The real numbers aren't nearly that optimistic", where
"that" refers to your $80,000,000 number. The real numbers aren't
nearly /that/ optimistic. They're in the range of $20,000,000 or so
for all pledges combined throughout the next month.
On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 11:20 AM, Josh Leverette <coder543@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:coder543@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
If you look at my graph, the average is significantly skewed by
the $600 perk. The average slope for the 2nd half of the graph is
$605.43 per 90 seconds. The real numbers aren't nearly that
optimistic, which fits with what I said in my earlier emails.
On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 11:13 AM, Daniel Clem <clem11388@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:clem11388@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
If that trend holds there will be a total of almost
80,000,000. Obviously it will have ups and downs, but even
half that average would reach the goal. Will re-investigate
GSM's signal strength in my area, as well as data plans.
Josh Leverette <coder543@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:coder543@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
The only number I'm writing down is the total funding
amount so far at each interval, I'm not writing anything
down about individual users. I feel like anything more
than just looking at the total would be kind of sketchy. I
ran some analysis and out of all of the 90 second periods,
the most amount of contribution that the project received
was $18,432 total during one 90 second interval. The
average so far has been about $2,607 per 90 second interval.
On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:56 AM, Omar B.
<estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Nice, thx for recording the data and the graph.
did you get any data on individuals who may had
purchased multiple times consecutively? , how many
each individual got ?
I Think indiegogo only lets you select one perk even
if you add more cash to the amount.
So it wouldn't be a surprise if some made multiple
purchases consecutively.
Anyway this will be a crucial week, hope their double
edge and other perks get mass acceptance.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: coder543@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:coder543@xxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2013 10:41:00 -0500
Subject: Re: [Ubuntu-phone] Ubuntu Edge (the Ubuntu
handset)
To: estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx>
CC: ubuntu-phone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:ubuntu-phone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Actually, this will probably help. This is the amount
of funding the project had received over time. The
data was sampled at a rate of once every 90 seconds.
You can clearly see the moment when the $600 phone
option ran out. Calculating the trend line for the
second half of the graph indicates that the campaign
will raise about $20,000,000 total over the full
period of the campaign, which is not enough. I believe
that this is the reason Canonical introduced the
Double Edge option a few minutes ago, which might
boost sales by a little bit more. Hopefully this
clarifies my point. There lines are very smooth. If a
company bought 100 units all at once, there would be a
visible blip on the graph, in my opinion. That would
be $60,000 in pledges all at once, which would break
the monotony of the graph.
Inline image 1
On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:34 AM, Josh Leverette
<coder543@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:coder543@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
I'm not saying companies /couldn't/ buy from the
indiegogo deal. I'm just saying the companies with
the money to buy from this fundraiser wouldn't be
able to move fast enough to have gotten in on the
1st day of sales. Companies move slowly for the
most part, and I was watching the sales figures
carefully. I've even plotted them on a graph over
time as the data has come in, starting at about
$1.5million dollars in sales. I should've started
the data collection earlier, but I stupidly didn't
think to. I watched the number from the start
though, even though they weren't being recorded.
The rates were constant. There was no bulk
purchase done by any one company. If you would
like to review my numbers, I can send you the
spreadsheet.
On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:16 AM, Omar B.
<estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
>Stores and resellers were not purchasing from
indiegogo yesterday. There might have been one
or two, but that's simply not what happened.
This whole campaign is all about individuals
buying these phones. I don't want to see this
campaign fail anymore than you do. People will
either buy them at $830, or they won't.
yes... sure.
I didn't see anywhere that said limited one
per client.
Or that you shouldn't get involved with
business reasons in mind and get a bunch of them.
There's nothing to lose at the moment, which
makes it even better. In fact anyone can come
in and buy most of the 35k remaining, I don't
think its prohibited.
I believe even companies got into the
discounted 600 tier and took their share and
is why you see 0 in the enterprise tier. Why
would you as a company pay 80/160k when you
can pay 60/120k right there (Big discount in
one go), is a no brainer, they wouldn't
survive as companies by being dumb about $,
specially on this economy.
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