ubuntu-phone team mailing list archive

[Daniel Clem <clem11388@xxxxxxxxx>]

Yes, but that will most likely be the the middle number. With a few ups and downs. 23 mill  would be easy if the average hit 1000 a couple times. Plus every good Fundraiser that's well publisized has a big surge at the end. Humans being un-mathematical in their actions means numbers are just rough estimates. 

I'm very optimistic, only question is, do I wanna switch to GSM right now.


Josh Leverette <coder543@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>Correction, "The real numbers aren't nearly that optimistic", where
>"that"
>refers to your $80,000,000 number. The real numbers aren't nearly
>*that* optimistic.
>They're in the range of $20,000,000 or so for all pledges combined
>throughout the next month.
>
>
>On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 11:20 AM, Josh Leverette <coder543@xxxxxxxxx>
>wrote:
>
>> If you look at my graph, the average is significantly skewed by the
>$600
>> perk. The average slope for the 2nd half of the graph is $605.43 per
>90
>> seconds. The real numbers aren't nearly that optimistic, which fits
>with
>> what I said in my earlier emails.
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 11:13 AM, Daniel Clem <clem11388@xxxxxxxxx>
>wrote:
>>
>>> If that trend holds there will be a total of almost 80,000,000.
>Obviously
>>> it will have ups and downs, but even half that average would reach
>the
>>> goal. Will re-investigate GSM's signal strength in my area, as well
>as data
>>> plans.
>>>
>>>
>>> Josh Leverette <coder543@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> The only number I'm writing down is the total funding amount so far
>at
>>>> each interval, I'm not writing anything down about individual
>users. I feel
>>>> like anything more than just looking at the total would be kind of
>sketchy.
>>>> I ran some analysis and out of all of the 90 second periods, the
>most
>>>> amount of contribution that the project received was $18,432 total
>during
>>>> one 90 second interval. The average so far has been about $2,607
>per 90
>>>> second interval.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:56 AM, Omar B. <estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Nice, thx for recording the data and the graph.
>>>>>
>>>>> did you get any data on individuals who may had purchased multiple
>>>>> times consecutively? , how many each individual got ?
>>>>>
>>>>> I Think indiegogo only lets you select one perk even if you add
>more
>>>>> cash to the amount.
>>>>>
>>>>> So it wouldn't be a surprise if some made multiple purchases
>>>>> consecutively.
>>>>>
>>>>> Anyway this will be a crucial week, hope their double edge and
>other
>>>>> perks get mass acceptance.
>>>>>
>>>>> ------------------------------
>>>>> From: coder543@xxxxxxxxx
>>>>> Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2013 10:41:00 -0500
>>>>>
>>>>> Subject: Re: [Ubuntu-phone] Ubuntu Edge (the Ubuntu handset)
>>>>> To: estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>> CC: ubuntu-phone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Actually, this will probably help. This is the amount of funding
>the
>>>>> project had received over time. The data was sampled at a rate of
>once
>>>>> every 90 seconds. You can clearly see the moment when the $600
>phone option
>>>>> ran out. Calculating the trend line for the second half of the
>graph
>>>>> indicates that the campaign will raise about $20,000,000 total
>over the
>>>>> full period of the campaign, which is not enough. I believe that
>this is
>>>>> the reason Canonical introduced the Double Edge option a few
>minutes ago,
>>>>> which might boost sales by a little bit more. Hopefully this
>clarifies my
>>>>> point. There lines are very smooth. If a company bought 100 units
>all at
>>>>> once, there would be a visible blip on the graph, in my opinion.
>That would
>>>>> be $60,000 in pledges all at once, which would break the monotony
>of the
>>>>> graph.
>>>>>
>>>>> [image: Inline image 1]
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:34 AM, Josh Leverette
><coder543@xxxxxxxxx>wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> I'm not saying companies *couldn't* buy from the indiegogo deal.
>I'm
>>>>> just saying the companies with the money to buy from this
>fundraiser
>>>>> wouldn't be able to move fast enough to have gotten in on the 1st
>day of
>>>>> sales. Companies move slowly for the most part, and I was watching
>the
>>>>> sales figures carefully. I've even plotted them on a graph over
>time as the
>>>>> data has come in, starting at about $1.5million dollars in sales.
>I
>>>>> should've started the data collection earlier, but I stupidly
>didn't think
>>>>> to. I watched the number from the start though, even though they
>weren't
>>>>> being recorded. The rates were constant. There was no bulk
>purchase done by
>>>>> any one company. If you would like to review my numbers, I can
>send you the
>>>>> spreadsheet.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:16 AM, Omar B.
><estelar57@xxxxxxxxxxx>wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> >Stores and resellers were not purchasing from indiegogo
>yesterday.
>>>>> There might have been one or two, but that's simply not what
>happened. This
>>>>> whole campaign is all about individuals buying these phones. I
>don't want
>>>>> to see this campaign fail anymore than you do. People will either
>buy them
>>>>> at $830, or they won't.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> yes... sure.
>>>>>
>>>>> I didn't see anywhere that said limited one per client.
>>>>>
>>>>> Or that you shouldn't get involved with business reasons in mind
>and
>>>>> get a bunch of them.
>>>>>
>>>>> There's nothing to lose at the moment, which makes it even better.
>In
>>>>> fact anyone can come in and buy most of the 35k remaining, I don't
>think
>>>>> its prohibited.
>>>>>
>>>>> I believe even companies got into the discounted 600 tier and took
>>>>> their share and is why you see 0 in the enterprise tier. Why would
>you as a
>>>>> company pay 80/160k when you can pay 60/120k right there (Big
>discount in
>>>>> one go), is a no brainer, they wouldn't survive as companies by
>being dumb
>>>>> about $, specially on this economy.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone
>>>>> Post to     : ubuntu-phone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone
>>>>> More help   : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Sincerely,
>>>>>     Josh
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Sincerely,
>>>>>     Josh
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone
>>>>> Post to     : ubuntu-phone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone
>>>>> More help   : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Sincerely,
>>>>     Josh
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Post to     : ubuntu-phone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> More help   : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp
>>>>
>>>>
>>
>>
>>  --
>> Sincerely,
>>     Josh
>>
>
>
>
>-- 
>Sincerely,
>    Josh